Merapi this time out of habit. Never Merapi eruption with a pattern like this.Since erupting Tuesday, October 26, 2010, there were no signs of Merapi would be normal. What happened yesterday at 10:03 pm, just re-eruption of Merapi for the fourth time.
Already 39 lives taken away, the hamlets were destroyed, hundreds of dead livestock - mainly displaced people despondent, wondering when the threat of Merapi will end.
Amidst all the turmoil, appears a photograph that makes people feel more ketar-ketir: Mbah Petruk cloud sightings on Merapi.
The figure of similar character clown-servants, Petruk is above the cameras caught the Merapi. The photo was taken Suswanto, residents Srumbung Magelang Monday 1 November 2010 - before the eruption occurred.
The photo was then spread quickly and scandalize the virtual world. Some believe, it is signified, Merapi will muntab with greater force.
Petruk nose pointing direction South is considered a sign, that the South will suffer the most severe damage.
However, Head of Investigation and Technology Development Kegunungapian (BPPTK) Subandrio not agree with that notion. And consider that the cloud was not a marker of anything, let alone a sign of eruption. "Certainly not," he said when contacted VIVAnews Subandrio, Monday evening, November 1, 2010.
However, Subandrio admitted understand. "We understand their beliefs, not blame. It has not been lost on the community, including South communities, northern communities with different versions," he added.
According to him, this is a challenge for disaster mitigation of the social aspect - how to change the views of communities to be more scientific.
Potential major eruption of Merapi
The eruption that occurred this year recognized Subandrio not the largest. He said, so far the power of the eruption this time only half of which occurred in 1872.
Although this time, ash covered the area around Merapi in Yogyakarta and Central Java, even to the Ciamis and Tasikmalaya in West Java.
"In 1872, the eruption of thunderous sounds of more than 8 kilometers. Ashes to the east reached Madura, while to the west to Falkirk," he explained. Meanwhile, heat clouds then rolled up as far as 15 kilometers.
The current strength of the Merapi eruption also still below the 1930 eruption and the 1960's. So this time the eruption was not the biggest.
So, when Merapi will fade to normal?
Subandrio claimed not to know. He said, his side are currently trying to understand the patterns of the Merapi eruption. Because, "the eruption that is now different from the eruption of which we know directly," he said.
Admittedly, never Merapi erupt like today. "Merapi is still erupting. What is the biggest eruption of the first, whether the next eruption tends to shrink, whether stopped or are still waiting for major eruption, we do not know."
Subandrio said, according sekrenario indeed there is a potential major eruption. Most large magmatic eruption. But again, that the new estimates.
However, anticipatory steps have been made. One of them, evacuated the people living in the area 10 kilometers from the mountain top. It's further away from vulnerable areas before determining the radius of 4 kilometers.
And, Merapi has not been shifted from the status of Caution. A team of experts are waiting and watching the mountain.
Although I can not exactly predict when Merapi erupted, Subandrio confirmed, the prediction is not only a matter of time Merapi erupts, but also the type of eruption.
He said, had from the beginning, BPPTK and the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation predicted, Merapi eruption will be explosive.
"It is far more important. Imagine if we predicted the eruption of Merapi usual, the people there [the slopes of Merapi] will run out."
